Global Trade up 13.5% in 2010 – WTO Predicts

  

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The WTO has revised their projection for world trade growth from 10% predicted back in March up to 13.5%. This increase is a result of higher than expected growth in global trade during the first half of this year, particularly in emerging economies. Recovery in the GDP for both emerging and developed economies in the first half of 2010 had a positive impact on total world merchandise shipping resulting in larger than expected increases.

Should the WTO’s projection for global shipping be correct, 2010 would be the fastest year-over-year expansion of international trade on record in data going back to 1950. Of course this does come after the 12.2% drop in world exports in 2009 so trade level would still be slightly below the high levels seen in 2008. However, this is definitely positive news for the international trading industry and the global economy as a whole.  According to WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy “This surge in trade flows provides the means to climb out of this painful economic recession and can help put people back to work. It underscores, as well, the wisdom governments have shown in rejecting protectionism.”

The WTO reports that the value of the world merchandise trade was up 25% in the first six months of 2010 compared to the same time period 2009. Despite those positive growth numbers seen in the first half of the year, many economists expect growth to slow during the remaining of 2010 as fiscal stimulus measures expire and the inventory cycle begins to winds down. There are still many challenges including large deficits in many countries, remaining high unemployment and low consumer confidence which will need to improve in order to sustain these positive growth numbers in international shipping.