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Maersk to Outlast Competitors in Face of Lower Freight Rates?

  
  
  
  
  
  

Everyone loves lower freight rates. Right? Wrong.

While they’re great for shippers doing international business and importing and exporting goods, lower freight rates mean smaller profit margins for carriers/containership owners.

In fact, low freight rates can even cause no profit and loss for carriers.

Container ShipIn a recent Universal Cargo blog, we spotlighted the falling freight rates for shipping from China.

But it is not only importing from China where freight rates have fallen.

There are many factors that affect freight rates, but one of the top factors is capacity.

Right now, carriers face overcapacity. Major overcapacity.

More on capacity exceeding demand.

It would appear this major overcapacity will continue for at least a few years.

AP Møller-Maersk (Maersk), the world’s largest containership company with a fleet of 222 container vessels is showing a cool demeanor at the sight of plummeting profits.

According to an IFW article by Kizzi Nkwocha, “Maersk says it is prepared to outlast its rivals.”

The article says the industry could be facing four years of overcapacity and that in just the last year the value of Maersk’s fleet of containerships has fallen from $12 billion to $9.1 billion.

Could Maersk really handle four years like that?

As all carriers are facing the same problem of lower freight rates and falling value of ships because of overcapacity, this situation could actually turn out well for Maersk.

Out on the junkyard, sometimes the bigger dog eats the smaller dogs.Bearing K-9s

Maersk is certainly the big dog of the shipping industry.

I can almost see a sneer full of K-9s as the IFW article quotes Maersk CEO Nils Smedegaard Andersen saying, “It would be natural if the smaller players in this business, or their banks, start questioning whether it’s a good idea to keep competing.”

While overcapacity and lower freight rates are good news for freight forwarders and international shippers right now, what kind of price jumps might we expect if Maersk is right about being able to outlast its competitors?

Freight rates are always volatile and I wouldn’t have you fretting over the future. Therefore, do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about its own things. Sufficient for the day is its own trouble.

Instead, shippers, get while the getting’s good. For a rate quote while overcapacity is in your favor, click here.

Comments

First you might check how many ships that Maersk has, slightly north of 550 and 16% of global container capacity. 
 
Will they outlast other carriers, they already have; in my career spanning 39+ years about 35 have gone by the wayside, or bottom of the sea.  
 
But concerning the current survivors, there will be casualties. In 1990 the top 20 carrier had 40% of the global trade. Today they have 84% of global trade. The top 3 carriers have 38% of global trade. So the carrier world is shirnking even though the last large merge was several years ago, 
 
Today the rumors are the 3 Japanese merging; CMA and MSC are "cooperating" in many trades primarily to combat Maersk's "Daily service". One of those two is in deep debt and the other has no public record. CSAV container division is said to be for sale, but how is buying and what would they be buying? 
 
As for shippers and low rates, there are lots of complaints by shippers about wants "stable rates" for some predictability to their cost streams. It comes down to who the shipper is and the type of business. 
 
But one thing to remember through all of this; in the 1970's the United Statesremoved much of the regulatory scheme for railroads at the insistance of shippers. The larger shippers benefited by getting our from under the "Common carrier" regulatory regime. Today there are only four major railroads in the US and many big shippers are complaining about the lack of service, the lack of competition, and rising rates. Thin about that with the ocean carrier business. Envision 10 carriers with 90% of the global container capacity, see what the world looks like then.
Posted @ Thursday, December 01, 2011 1:59 PM by Gary Ferrulli
Thank you, Gary. You always have great insight to share. 
 
You're right, Maersk does have more ships than this blog states. The 222 number is cargo ships Maersk currently has in service according to various articles on them and a statement from Maersk about the safety of the containers their fleet is transporting in the face of exploding reefers that happened recently. Thank you for that correction. 
 
Judging by the history of other carriers going down that you've seen over the years and the current overcapacity situation, do you think it's likely we'll see a scenario like the 10 carriers with 90% of the market as you describe? 
 
Could that number shrink to even fewer carriers? 
 
I can't imagine any government not doing what it could to avoid seeing a monopoly happen on the oceans of global trade. Do you think governments would become more involved, possibly dispatching their own fleets in ocean freight transport if the number of carriers were few enough to have too much control over prices in international trade?
Posted @ Thursday, December 01, 2011 4:02 PM by Eggie Egbert Green
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