From Transpacific to Nearshoring – America’s Biggest Trade Partner
Do you know what country is the number one trading partner for the U.S.? It’s not China. It’s not Canada….
2026 marks the third consecutive year that Mexico is the United States’ top trading partner.
It was 2024 when Mexico firmly took over as the largest trading partner for the U.S. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) reports:
… in 2024, Mexico was the second-largest destination for U.S. exports and the top source of U.S. imports. In 2024, over 80 percent of total Mexican goods exports were to the United States and over 40 percent of total Mexican goods imports were from the United States.
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U.S. goods and services trade with Mexico totaled an estimated $935.1 billion in 2024, up 5.5 percent ($49.0 billion) from 2023.
Imported and exported goods between the countries have continued to grow since then. USTR reports:
U.S. goods trade (exports plus imports) with Mexico totaled an estimated $872.8 billion in 2025. U.S. goods exports to Mexico in 2025 were $338.0 billion, up 1.2 percent ($3.9 billion) from 2024. U.S. goods imports from Mexico totaled $534.9 billion in 2025, up 5.8 percent ($29.4 billion) from 2024.
Let’s jump forward to the most recently released trade numbers between the U.S. and Mexico: those of March, 2026.
The U.S. Census Bureau reports $32.8 billion in U.S. exports to Mexico in March and $51.2 billion in imports from its southern neighbor for the month. Canada wasn’t too far away when it came to U.S. exports, at $31.4 billion. It had a much larger drop-off when it came to U.S. imports from Canada. Our northern neighbor only provided $34.1 billion in U.S. imports.
Our third largest trading partner, China, is all the way down at $11.1 billion and $20.9 billion for American exports and imports, respectively.
Shippers Shifting from Transpacific to Nearshoring
The last time China was the largest trading partner for the U.S. was back in 2018. It’s fallen behind both Mexico and Canada since then.
The biggest trigger of this shift from transpacific to nearshoring is, not surprisingly, tariffs. Tensions were on the rise between the U.S. and China in 2018. That was during President Trump’s first term, and we were in a full-blown trade war with the world’s second largest economy. Shippers watched as tariffs soared on both sides.
There was another pivotal event for this shipping shift during President Trump’s first term: the negotiation of the USMCA to replace the NAFTA trade agreement between the USA, Canada, and Mexico.
President Trump took his tariff policy to a whole new level here in his second term, and USMCA has provided some measure of tariff-hike-protection for goods from USA’s bordering neighbors.
Adding to the trade tensions and significantly higher tariffs on Chinese imports is the issue of forced labor. The systematic and state-sponsored usage of forced labor against the Uyghurs in China has given many shippers an ethical reason to move away from China for goods sourcing.
Certainly not all manufacturing from China involves forced labor; however, it can be difficult for shippers to ensure the goods they import from the country are free of it. China is not known for its transparency in supply chains. Often, the raw materials underpinning manufacturing are brought forth through the forced labor, even when the manufacturing of the final goods themselves does not utilize it.
Shippers’ Takeaway
Nearshoring, from Mexico in particular but from Canada as well, is a viable sourcing option for importers looking to shift from transpacific shipping. Mexico is also a good market for exporters to explore.
Mexico establishing itself as USA’s top trading partner should be hard for U.S. businesses to ignore. Beyond the tariff and forced labor issues, there are number of potential benefits to nearshoring from Mexico:
- Lower costs
- Faster delivery
- Supply chain resiliance
- Greener supply chain
Nearshoring does still have its set of challenges and specific regulatory requirements. However, it’s surging in North America.
Just as Universal Cargo can help shippers with all their international shipping needs for imports and exports from and to Asia, we can help you with your nearshoring exports and imports to and from Mexico and Canada.
