House Passing Legislation to Stop Trump’s Tariffs on Canada Is Merely Symbolic
Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed a resolution to stop President Trump’s tariffs on Canada.
Shippers excited that this will effectively halt the president’s tariff increases on goods imported from or through Canada should make like Larry David and curb their enthusiasm. This resolution has no chance of actually becoming law.
The resolution is a symbolic gesture for Democrats rebuking President Trump’s tariff usage. Democrats cheered in the House at the resolution’s passage, which required a handful of Republicans voting for it, especially as there was one Democrat defector who voted against it.
In order for Congress to enact a law against the tariffs, it would have to pass in both the House and the Senate, which is unlikely in and of itself, but that wouldn’t be enough. Legislation curbing his power to enact tariffs, which is central to Trump’s economic and foreign strategy, would certainly be vetoed by the president. In order to override that, it would take a two-thirds vote from both the House and the Senate.
So, yeah, that’s not happening, even if the Democrats manage to flip the House and Senate during the midterms from the small Republican majorities that hold Congress at the moment.
Right now, there’s just one thing that could throw a monkey wrench in President Trump’s tariff utilization…
Supreme Court Slow to Rule on Tariff Case
The Supreme Court is hearing a case on the legality of President Trump’s tariff authority through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
While IEEPA covers more of President Trump’s tariffs than the House’s resolution on tariffs on Canada does, it still doesn’t cover all of the tariffs President Trump has enacted. However, the Supreme Court ruling against IEEPA tariff authority would impact a great many of the president’s tariffs.
The tariff case was expedited to the Supreme Court, but getting a ruling is not happening fast. Many expected a ruling to come before 2026, but it did not. There have been many headlines and moments of expectation like the “Supreme Court Could Rule on Tariffs This Week” going back to early January. Here we are in mid-February still waiting. And with no clear indications of when a ruling will be made.
I’ve gone on record to say I don’t think the Supreme Court will rule against the tariff power. However, I’m apparently in the minority on that opinion, at least when it comes to people willing to put their money on it. Rounak Jain reports in an article published by Yahoo! Finance:
Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $4.9 million has been bet on the contract “Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump’s tariffs?”
Most bettors think that the Supreme Court will not rule in favor of the Trump tariffs.
As per bettors, there is a 68% probability that the Supreme Court will rule against Trump’s tariffs.
However the Supreme Court rules, the battle over tariffs won’t end there. As we’ve previously blogged about, the Trump Administration has alternative legal means it intends to use to justify the tariffs should the court rule against the IEEPA authority.
Jeff Cox reported in a CNBC article yesterday that tariff revenue soared more than 300% last month compared to the January prior, bringing in tens of billion in revenue and helping reduce the government deficit:
The U.S. government in January ran up a smaller deficit than a year ago, while tariff collections surged and provided a reminder of how pivotal a long-awaited Supreme Court decision could be to federal fiscal health.
Customs duties collected through tariffs totaled $30 billion for the month, putting the fiscal year-to-date tally at $124 billion, or 304% more than the same period in 2025.
Having numbers like that to point to, President Trump is not going to easily give up his tariff usage.
