Ship Now or Wait? What’s Happening with Freight Rates?
It’s time to look at what’s happening with freight rates.
Whenever there’s a disaster, crisis, or disruption to a major shipping hub, freight rates are impacted. Usually, that impact is not isolated to the location of a disruptive event and its immediate supply chains; rather, it ripples across supply chains around the globe.
As would be expected, ocean freight rates saw significant increase over the last month because of geopolitics, specifically the Iran War and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and is the shipping hub for about 20% of the world’s oil.
However, we have not seen the kind of skyrocketing freight rates that happened in the immediate aftermath of Iran-backed Houthi aggressions in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden that caused carriers to divert container shipping away from the Suez Canal. It should be noted, though, there are still more general rate increases (GRIs) and ocean freight fees to come from carriers, like the ones the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC), a week and a half ago, denied bypassing the 30-day notice period before implementation.
While analysts have optimistic projections for elevated oil prices coming back down in upcoming months, we haven’t seen the end of oil bunkers increasing freight rates yet either.
Even so, maritime research and consultant company Drewry tells shippers they “should not panic” in the face of Middle-East-related ocean freight spot rates surging. The Middle East crisis is not expected to come anywhere close to disrupting supply chains like we saw from the pandemic era “supply chain crisis.” The highest rate jumps are, of course, on those routes connected to the Persian Gulf.
The broader industry maintains manageable capacity and would even likely be struggling with overcapacity, putting considerable downward pressure on freight rates, if not for the disruption we’ve seen in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and now Persian Gulf. Drewry highlighted that the international shipping industry has not seen a significant decrease in ocean freight capacity outside of the Persian Gulf.
Some price spikes outside of the Persian Gulf seem opportunistic.
Judging from Drewry’s analysis, shippers shouldn’t panic, going all in on shipping as much as they can now for fear of freight rates continued rise to possible meteoric levels. In fact, Drewry pointed out that its World Container Index remained stable this week. That’s after rises of 2%, 8%, 2%, and 5% over the four previous weeks, respectively.
It’s also worth noting that freight rates were down to a seasonal low after the Chinese New Year, giving extra room for rise.
Freight Rate Indexes Since Iran War Started
Below are tables that compile freight rates from three major indexes: Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI), the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and the Xeneta Shipping Index. Each has its own methodology and sources for data used to track spot market freight rates. Thus, there is variation in their numbers, but they tend to trend similarly. Now is no exception.
From late February to early April, WCI shows an overall climb of 20.01%, XSI-C records a 30.58% increase, and SCFI shows freight rates up 45.97%. The combined average increase since the Iran War started is 32.19%.
Weekly Drewry World Container Index (WCI)
| Date | Composite Index (USD per FEU) | Weekly % Change |
|---|---|---|
| February 26, 2026 | $1,899 | -1% |
| March 5, 2026 | $1,965 | +2% |
| March 12, 2026 | $2,123 | +8% |
| March 19, 2026 | $2,172 | +2% |
| March 26, 2026 | $2,279 | +5% |
| April 2, 2026 | $2,287 | +0% (0.35% for precision) |
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI)
| Date | SCFI Index (Points) | Trend Status |
|---|---|---|
| February 27, 2026 | 1,251.46 | Seasonal low following Chinese New Year |
| March 6, 2026 | 1,333.11 | +6.5% |
| March 13, 2026 | 1,520.40 | +14% |
| March 20, 2026 | 1,706.95 | +12% |
| March 27, 2026 | 1,826.77 | +7% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | 1,826.77 | 0% change |
Xeneta Shipping Index (XSI-C)
| Date | Spot Rate (USD per FEU) | Market Driver |
|---|---|---|
| February 26, 2026 | $2,224 | Market bottomed as capacity outweighed demand |
| March 12, 2026 | $2,336 | +5% increase after initial conflict reports |
| March 20, 2026 | $2,305 | Overall stable price despite local hikes |
| March 28, 2026 | $2,350 | Stabilizing ahead of April 1st price hikes |
| April 1, 2026 | $2,904 | +23.6% largely due to April freight of all kinds (FAK) rate fee implementations |
Transpacific Freight Rates
Here’s a quick look at freight rates for U.S. importers from Asia, specifically Drewry’s China to USWC and USEC. The Shanghai to L.A. route saw a total increase of about 10.5% since the Iran War started while Shanghai to New York saw a rise of about 14.5%.
Clearly, overall freight rates went up, as would be expected, but major routes not directly connected to the Persian Gulf have appropriately not increased at the same level.
Here are the numbers:
| Date | Rate (USD) | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| February 26, 2026 | $2,411 | -1% |
| March 5, 2026 | $2,402 | -0.4% |
| March 12, 2026 | $2,503 | +4% |
| March 19, 2026 | $2,591 | +3.5% |
| March 26, 2026 | $2,686 | +4% |
| April 2, 2026 | $2,663 | -1% |
| Date | Rate (USD) | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| February 26, 2026 | $2,999 | 0% |
| March 5, 2026 | $2,977 | -0.7% |
| March 12, 2026 | $3,080 | +3% |
| March 19, 2026 | $3,310 | +7.5% |
| March 26, 2026 | $3,393 | +3% |
| April 2, 2026 | $3,434 | +1% |
Conclusion
I would tend to echo Drewry’s message to shippers of don’t panic. However, that doesn’t mean I think we’re about to see freight rates dropping right away.
Despite seeing quite a bit of stable freight rates this week from indexes, I don’t think rates are completely done rising in relation to the Iran War. I’d expect freight rates to rise in the upcoming weeks before both they and oil prices come back down. Of course, by then, we’ll be heading for international shipping’s peak season.
I would bet on carriers doing everything they can to keep freight rates as high as they can going into the peak season before implementing GRIs and Peak Season Surcharges when it arrives.
Ultimately, capacity in the industry is not short. If the Iran War wraps up quickly, which there are some indications it could, oil should flow through the Hormuz Strait and downward pressure on freight rates could create a small window for shippers to capitalize on favorable freight rates before their seasonal rise starts.
