Shipping Demand, Tariffs, & Trade Deals, Oh My
Shipping surge, new tariffs on the way, 50% tariff on specific Canadian goods announced, subdued peak season predicted, and a new reciprocal trade deal with Jordan…
Wow. That’s a lot for one blog.
But don’t worry, much of it is intertwined, so we’ll get through it quickly, keeping you shippers out there informed on what’s happening with international shipping right now.
And if you want the full text of the trade deal with Jordan, as well as the White House announcement on it, skip down to the bottom after our button links to freight rate quotes.
Shipping Demand & Tariffs
It’s been widely reported that international shipping demand is up and has been up for the last couple months with frontloading by shippers to beat new tariffs that could be announced as soon as this week. It’s often been spoken of as an early peak season for 2026.
Almost oddly, in an interview series we posted part 1 of last week, Universal Cargo CEO Devin Burke talks about (spoiler) shipping demand being down. Plus, Universal Cargo’s internal numbers don’t show an increase in file or container counts matching the overall shipping surge numbers that have been reported, despite our numbers usually being a pretty good barometer for the industry as a whole.
One reason for this seeming disconnect is that a great deal of the shipping surge appears to be coming from the large and BCO (Beneficial Cargo Owner) importers who are not only big enough to negotiate direct contracts with ocean freight carriers but also dip into the spot market. While there should also be some frontloading from the small to medium shippers (the type Universal Cargo serves), it does not appear to be happening at a similar rate to the bigger players.
Semiconductors, rare earth materials, vehicles, and ships reportedly high among exported items from China boosting shipping demand lends to the idea the demand increase leans stronger toward the larger shippers.
As soon as this Friday, the Office of the US Trade Representative is scheduled to announce the latest results of Section 301 investigations, which are being used to replace the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) -related tariffs the Supreme Court ruled illegal. That could mean we’ve about come to the end of the frontloading, and at least one major shipping industry analyst is predicting what we’ve been speculating in Universal Cargo’s blog for a while could happen to this year’s peak season: it could be subdued.
Stuart Chirls reports in FreightWaves:
In the ocean freight sector, anticipation of new tariffs has driven U.S. importers to frontload inventory since November 2024. This pull-forward effect has kept ocean import container volumes unusually strong. However, the landscape is about to change dramatically.
With reciprocal tariffs not applying to goods loaded before April 9, Levine said that there may be a brief scramble pushing container rates and demand up for a few days. But this is likely to be followed by a significant drop in volumes and rates as importers pause orders to let the tariff situation stabilize.
This pattern could lead to a subdued peak season, reminiscent of how tariff-driven frontloading in 2018 led to lower container rates and demand in 2019. Once inventories run down, the strength of the container market will hinge on the broader economic impacts of the trade war. Earlier, the Port of Los Angeles predicted container volumes will decline 10% in the second half of the year.
Indeed, there has been a slight decrease in freight rates this week of around 1-3% on the major indexes. Two weeks ago, analysts were predicting freight rates had reached their peak. That was right before renewed hostilities between Iran and the U.S. gave carriers extra opportunity to hold freight rates higher. We’ll see if this week’s freight rate slip is the start of something longer.
New 50% Tariff on Specific Canadian Goods
Meanwhile, shippers don’t have to wait until Friday for their first taste of new tariff announcements this week. Yesterday, President Trump announced a 50% tariff on many Canadian goods to go into effect in a month.
Jill McLaughlin reports in the Epoch Times:
U.S. President Donald Trump imposed an additional 50 percent tariff on some Canadian goods July 20, saying the country has discriminated against American dairy, alcohol, and auto exports.
“President Trump is taking action to hold Canada accountable for its continued discrimination against and unreasonable and unequal treatment of U.S. commerce that has burdened and disadvantaged hardworking Americans,” the White House said in a statement.
The tariffs take effect in 30 days.
President Trump is using Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 for these tariffs. If they go into effect in a month, I would expect legal challenges to follow as we’ve seen on his previous tariffs.
I say if they go into effect because the tariff announcement could be to put negotiation pressure on Canada. A few weeks ago, the U.S. chose not to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). That, in and of itself, doesn’t mean the USMCA is cancelled, but it does force more negotiation between the countries and set up for a potential exit of the agreement.
400+ products are impacted by the 50% tariff announced, including agricultural goods, alcoholic beverages, electronics, sporting goods, toys, some construction goods, and more.
The Trump Administration points to Canada’s long unfair trade practices when it comes to U.S. goods as well as Canadian retaliation “against the United States for its efforts to rebalance trade and protect U.S. industry in national-security sensitive sectors” for the new tariffs.
McLaughlin reports:
Canada has taken U.S. alcohol products off shelves and given better market access to dairy products from the European Union. Canada has also capped U.S. vehicle exports, Greer said.
Reciprocal Trade Deal with Jordan Announced
Speaking of tariffs and negotiations, President Trump today announced a reciprocal trade deal with Jordan.
The full text of the White House fact sheet on the deal as well as the deal itself are below, so I won’t spend too much time on this here. You can scroll down for all the details.
The deal includes tariff-free access to Jordan for most U.S. exports, the removal of non-tariff barriers, improved enforcement of protective laws by Jordan, defense trade and national security cooperation, as well as investment cooperation between the parties.
Separate from the trade deal itself but included in its announcement, significant investment and investment commitments from Jordanian companies in U.S. industry have been made.
Full Text of White House Trade Deal Summary
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Announces Trade Deal with Jordan
The White House / July 21, 2026
DELIVERING ON RECIPROCAL TRADE: Today, President Donald J. Trump announced a landmark trade deal with Jordan.
- The U.S.-Jordan Agreement on Reciprocal Trade will break down longstanding trade barriers facing U.S. exporters and provide new access for critical U.S. industries.
- The Agreement will secure commitments to reinforce peace, boost regional cooperation and enhance supply chain resilience and innovation through commitments to jointly address non-market policies of third countries and cooperate on investment security, export controls, and duty evasion.
- Today’s announcement will help build a future of peace, prosperity, and investment in the region while securing historic commitments from Jordan to benefit U.S. manufacturers, farmers, ranchers, and other producers.
Key terms of the Agreement with Jordan include:
- Jordan will continue to provide duty-free market access for almost all U.S. goods exported to Jordan.
- Jordan has committed to improving trade with the United States by enforcing environmental laws, protecting labor rights, including by prohibiting the importation of goods produced by forced labor, strengthening intellectual property protection, ensuring fair trade practices, and improving customs procedures.
- Jordan will also remove non-tariff trade barriers and expand market access for U.S. goods, including U.S. agricultural products and U.S. motor vehicles.
- The United States and Jordan will strengthen economic and national security alignment to enhance supply chain resilience and innovation through commitments to take complementary actions to address non-market policies of third countries and to cooperate on investment security, export controls, and duty evasion.
- The Agreement on Reciprocal Trade will build upon our longstanding economic relationship, including the U.S.-Jordan Free Trade Agreement, which entered into force on December 17, 2001.
THE PROSPEROUS PATH FORWARD: Today’s announcement reinforces America’s strategic partnership with one of America’s most valued partners in the Middle East while fostering reciprocal conditions that prioritize American workers and industries, protect U.S. national security, and strengthen supply chains with key trading partners.
LIBERATING AMERICA FROM UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES: President Trump has challenged the assumption that American workers and businesses must tolerate unfair trade practices that have disadvantaged them for decades and contributed to our historic global trade deficit in goods.
- President Trump continues to advance the interests of the American people and our agricultural sector by removing tariff and non-tariff barriers and expanding market access for American exporters.
- Jordan has made historic commitments to invest in American industry.
- Royal Jordanian Airlines purchased six Boeing 787-9 aircraft valued at $1.4 billion and signed long-term leasing agreements for additional aircraft valued at $500 million.
- Jordanian Pharmaceutical manufacturer Hikma Pharmaceuticals announced it will invest $1 billion in the United States.
- Jordanian businesses have agreed to purchase over $300 million in raw materials annually from the United States.
- President Trump has delivered historic wins for the American people with the signing of agreements on reciprocal trade with: Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, El Salvador, Ecuador, Guatemala, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Taiwan, securing U.S. investments from Japan and Korea, and announcing joint frameworks with the EU, the United Kingdom, North Macedonia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Switzerland and Liechtenstein.
- Today’s announcement shows that America can defend its domestic production while obtaining and maintaining expansive market access with our trading partners.
Full Text of Agreement
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN ON RECIPROCAL TRADE
The White House / July 21, 2026
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN ON RECIPROCAL TRADE
Preamble
The United States of America (“United States”) and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan (“Jordan”) (individually a “Party” and collectively “the Parties”),
EMPHASIZING their shared values, including democracy, economic freedom, and the rule of law;
RECOGNIZING the special bonds of friendship and cooperation between them, in particular in their trade and investment relations;
INTENDING to enhance reciprocity in their bilateral trade relationship by securing preferential trade arrangements and addressing tariff and non-tariff barriers;
SEEKING to strengthen their commercial relationship through increased alignment on national and regional economic security matters; and
DESIRING to supplement their rights and obligations under the Agreement between the United States of America and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan on the Establishment of a Free Trade Area, done at Washington on October 24, 2000 (U.S. – Jordan FTA),
HAVE AGREED as follows:
Section 1. Tariffs and Quotas
Article 1.1: Tariffs
1. Jordan shall apply a rate of customs duty on an originating good of the United States as set out in the U.S. – Jordan FTA.
2. The United States shall apply tariff treatment for originating goods of Jordan as set out in Annex I of this Agreement.
Article 1.2: Quotas
Jordan shall not impose quotas on imports of originating goods of the United States except as the Parties otherwise agree.
Section 2. Non-Tariff Barriers and Related Matters
Article 2.1: Import Licensing
Jordan shall not apply import licensing[1] to U.S. originating goods in a manner that restricts the importation of such goods. Jordan shall ensure that any non-automatic import licensing that it applies is applied only to administer an underlying measure, and in a manner that is transparent, nondiscriminatory, and not unduly burdensome and that does not reduce the competitiveness of U.S. exports.
Article 2.2: Technical Regulations, Standards, and Conformity Assessment
1. Jordan shall allow U.S. originating goods that comply with applicable U.S. or international standards, U.S. technical regulations, or U.S. or international conformity assessment procedures to enter its territory without additional conformity assessment requirements. In doing so:
(a) Jordan shall accord to the conformity assessment bodies of the United States treatment no less favorable than that it accords to its own bodies.
(b) Jordan shall facilitate the acceptance of U.S. compliance procedures for goods which are not subject to third-party conformity assessment in the U.S. regulatory framework.[2]
2. Jordan shall ensure that technical regulations, standards, and conformity assessment procedures are applied in a non-discriminatory manner and do not operate as disguised restrictions on bilateral trade, and shall remove existing technical barriers to trade in areas that undermine reciprocity, including requirements for duplicative or unnecessary testing or conformity assessment requirements.
Article 2.3: Agriculture
1. The United States shall provide non-discriminatory or preferential market access for Jordanian agricultural goods as set forth in Annex I, and Jordan shall provide non-discriminatory or preferential market access for U.S. agricultural goods as set forth in the U.S. – Jordan FTA.
2. Jordan shall ensure that its sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures are science- and risk-based; based on relevant international standards, guidelines, and recommendations developed by the Codex Alimentarius Commission, the World Organization for Animal Health, and the International Plant Protection Convention; and do not operate as disguised restrictions on bilateral trade. In this regard, Jordan shall remove unjustified SPS barriers in areas that undermine reciprocity.
3. Jordan shall not adopt or maintain non-scientific, discriminatory, or preferential measures that are incompatible with U.S. or international standards or otherwise disadvantage U.S. exports to Jordan, including as a result of entering into agreements or understandings with third countries.
Article 2.4: Geographical Indications
Jordan shall ensure transparency and fairness with respect to the protection or recognition of geographical indications, including pursuant to an international agreement. In cases where Jordan protects or recognizes a term that identifies a good as a geographical indication but where there is no given quality, reputation, or other characteristic of the good that is essentially attributable to its geographical origin, Jordan shall permit use of the term in connection with U.S. goods.
Article 2.5: Cheese and Meat Terms
Jordan shall not restrict U.S. market access due to the mere use of the individual cheese and meat terms listed in Annex II.
Article 2.6: Intellectual Property[3]
Jordan shall provide a robust standard of protection for intellectual property.[4] Jordan shall provide effective systems for civil, criminal, and border enforcement of intellectual property rights and shall ensure that such systems combat and deter the infringement or misappropriation of intellectual property, including in the online environment. Jordan shall prioritize and shall take effective criminal and border enforcement actions against copyright and trademark infringements.
Article 2.7: Services
Jordan shall address existing services trade barriers that undermine reciprocity. Jordan shall refrain from imposing new barriers that provide less favorable treatment to U.S. services suppliers than the treatment afforded to domestic services suppliers and services suppliers from any third country, jurisdiction, or economy.
Article 2.8: Good Regulatory Practices
Jordan shall adopt and implement good regulatory practices as set out in Article 1.12 of Annex III that ensure greater transparency, predictability, and participation throughout the regulatory lifecycle.
Article 2.9: Labor
1. Jordan recognizes the importance of eliminating all forms of forced or compulsory labor and affirms its obligations as a member of the International Labor Organization (ILO) and pursuant to the relevant ILO instruments to which it is a Party. Accordingly, Jordan shall, within five years of entry into force of this agreement, prohibit the importation of goods mined, produced, or manufactured wholly or in part by forced or compulsory labor. Further to this obligation, Jordan shall recognize U.S. government determinations on entities under Section 307 of the Tariff Act of 1930 and shall presumptively prohibit importation of goods from those companies.
2. Jordan shall protect internationally recognized labor rights.[5] This includes by adopting or maintaining such rights in its law and practice, and effectively enforcing its labor laws, including by creating or maintaining necessary institutions to protect labor rights. Jordan shall establish and effectively apply appropriate legal sanctions for violations of those laws. Jordan shall not weaken or reduce the protections in its labor laws and shall address any such weakening or reduction that has been made to encourage trade or investment to date.[6] In addition, Jordan shall address issues related to labor rights that contribute to non-reciprocal trade.
Article 2.10: Environment
Jordan shall adopt and maintain environmental protections, effectively enforce its environmental laws, uphold or institute as necessary strong environmental governance structures, and address environment-related issues that contribute to non-reciprocal trade.
Article 2.11: Customs Administration and Trade Facilitation
Jordan shall maintain or implement technology solutions, within five years of entry into force of this Agreement, that allow for full pre-arrival processing, paperless trade, and digitalized procedures for the movement of goods of the United States across its borders.
Section 3. Digital Trade and Technology
Article 3.1: Digital Services Tax
Jordan shall not impose digital services taxes, or similar taxes, that discriminate against U.S. companies in law or in fact.
Article 3.2: Facilitation of Digital Trade
1. Jordan shall facilitate digital trade with the United States, including by refraining from measures that discriminate against U.S. digital services or U.S. digital products,[7] ensuring the free transfer of data across trusted borders for the conduct of business, and collaborating with the United States to address cybersecurity challenges.
2. If Jordan enters into a new digital trade agreement[8] with a country that jeopardizes essential U.S. interests, the United States may terminate this Agreement.
3. Jordan shall not impose any condition or enforce any undertaking requiring U.S. persons to transfer or provide access to a particular technology, production process, source code, or other proprietary knowledge, or to purchase, utilize, or accord a preference to a particular technology, as a condition for doing business in its territory. This paragraph does not preclude a regulatory body or judicial authority of a Party from requiring a person of another Party to preserve and make available the source code of software, or an algorithm expressed in that source code, to the regulatory body for a specific investigation, inspection, examination, enforcement action, or judicial proceeding, subject to safeguards against unauthorized disclosure.
Article 3.3: Customs Duties on Electronic Transmissions
Jordan shall not impose customs duties on electronic transmissions, including content transmitted electronically, and shall support multilateral adoption of a permanent moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions at the WTO immediately and without conditions.
Section 4. Economic and National Security
Article 4.1: Complementary Actions
1. When the United States imposes a customs duty, quota, prohibition, fee, charge or other import restriction on a good or service of a third country pursuant to relevant domestic law and considers that such measures are relevant to protecting the economic or national security of the United States, the United States intends to notify such measures to Jordan for the purpose of economic security alignment. Upon receiving such notification, and after consulting with the United States, Jordan shall regulate, consistent with its domestic law and international rights and obligations, the importation of that good or service into its territory through appropriate measures, as decided by Jordan.
2. After consultations with the United States, Jordan shall adopt and implement measures, consistent with its domestic law and international obligations, to address unfair practices of companies operating in Jordan, where such companies are based in a country that jeopardizes essential U.S. interests or are directly or indirectly owned or controlled by a company based in a country that jeopardizes essential U.S. interests, that result in (1) the export of below-market price goods to the United States; (2) increased exports of such goods to the United States; (3) a reduction in U.S. exports to Jordan; or (4) a reduction in U.S. exports to third-country markets.
3. Jordan shall adopt similar measures, of equivalent restrictive effect, to those of the United States to encourage shipbuilding and shipping by market economy countries.
Article 4.2: Export Controls, Sanctions, Investment Security, and Related Matters
1. Jordan shall cooperate with the United States to regulate the trade in national security-sensitive technologies and goods through existing multilateral export control regimes, align with all unilateral export controls in force by the United States, and ensure that its companies do not backfill or undermine these controls.
2. Jordan shall cooperate with the United States with a view to restricting transactions of its nationals with individuals and entities included on the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security Entity List (Supplement 4 of Part 744 of the Export Administration Regulations), as well as the U.S. Department of the Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control Lists of Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List (SDN List) and the Non-SDN Consolidated Sanctions Lists.
3. Jordan shall cooperate with the United States on matters related to investment security and shall take steps to identify, review, and address national security risks to Jordan related to investment and procurement activity in specific sensitive sectors in its territory, including exploring the establishment of a mechanism to review inbound investment for national security risks.
4. If the United States determines that Jordan is cooperating to address shared national and economic security issues, the United States may take such cooperation into account in administering its laws and regulations pertaining to export controls, investment reviews, and other measures.
Article 4.3: Other Measures
1. The United States shall work with Jordan to streamline and enhance defense trade.
2. Jordan shall adopt and effectively enforce provisions to combat transshipment and other practices to evade or circumvent duties, and other measures applied by the United States.
3. If Jordan enters into a new bilateral free trade agreement or preferential economic agreement with a country that jeopardizes essential U.S. interests, the United States may terminate this Agreement.
4. Jordan shall not agree to new purchases of any nuclear reactors, fuel rods, or enriched uranium from a country that jeopardizes essential U.S. interests. The Parties may cooperate, as appropriate, to identify alternative sources to purchase these goods.
Section 5. Commercial Considerations and Opportunities
Article 5.1: Investment
1. Jordan shall allow and facilitate U.S. investment in its territory to explore, mine, extract, refine, process, transport, distribute and export critical minerals and energy resources and to provide power generation, telecommunication, transportation, and infrastructure services on terms no less favorable than it accords to its own investors in like circumstances and shall regulate those investments in keeping with minimum standards of international law.
2. The United States shall work through its U.S. institutions such as the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM Bank) and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), if eligible, to consider supporting investment financing in critical sectors in Jordan in collaboration with U.S. private sector partners, consistent with applicable law.
Article 5.2: Commercial Considerations
1. Jordan shall ensure that its state-owned or controlled enterprises (SOEs), and SOEs of third countries operating in its market, when engaging in commercial activities: (a) act in accordance with commercial considerations in their purchase or sale of goods or services; and (b) refrain from discriminating against U.S. goods or services. Jordan shall refrain from subsidizing its goods-producing SOEs in a manner that significantly impacts trade with the United States.
2. Upon the written request of the United States, Jordan shall provide information regarding all forms of subsidies that it provides to a manufacturing enterprise in its territory and shall take action to address the distortive impacts of those subsidies and support mechanisms on trade and investment with the United States.
3. Jordan shall expand cooperation and exchange information with the United States, as appropriate, related to U.S. and Jordanian antidumping and countervailing duty proceedings, including circumvention inquiries.
4. Jordan shall eliminate the special tax on newly manufactured, unused U.S. produced motor vehicles that meet the rules of origin established in the U.S. – Jordan FTA and are exported directly from the United States.
5. To the extent consistent with reducing the U.S. trade deficit with Jordan, the United States should encourage U.S. firms, including their subsidiaries, to invest in Jordan with an aim to expanding their export capabilities to regional and international markets, leveraging Jordan as a hub for production and export, and enhancing their global competitiveness and supply chain efficiency, in order to capitalize on Jordan’s favorable business climate, highly competitive production costs, and skilled labor pool.
Section 6. Implementation and Enforcement
Article 6.1: Annexes, Appendices, and Footnotes
The annexes, appendices, schedules, general notes, and footnotes to this Agreement constitute an integral part of this Agreement.
Article 6.2: Modifications and Amendments
1. Each Party may request reasonable modifications to any provision of this Agreement, which the other Party shall consider in good faith and accept if such modifications do not harm that Party’s interest or otherwise undermine the benefits of this Agreement or other agreements between the Parties. The Parties may agree, in writing, to amend this Agreement.
2. The Parties recognize that the purpose of this Agreement is to deepen the bilateral trade relationship based on mutual trust and a shared commitment to fair and reciprocal trade. On the request of either Party, the Parties will consult with a view to considering any changes that may need to be made to this Agreement to ensure that it remains mutually beneficial.
Article 6.3: Rules of Origin
The Parties intend for the benefits of this Agreement to accrue substantially to them and their nationals. If benefits of this Agreement are accruing substantially to third countries or third-country nationals, a Party may establish rules of origin necessary to achieve the Parties’ intention for this Agreement.
Article 6.4: Enforcement and Implementation
1. If either Party considers that the other Party has not complied with a provision of this Agreement, that Party may review the terms of the Agreement and take action in accordance with its law. Prior to taking an action under this paragraph, a Party shall, when practicable, seek consultations with the other Party.
2. Nothing in this Agreement shall constrain, or otherwise prevent, a Party from imposing additional tariffs to remedy unfair trade practices, to address import surges, to protect its economic or national security, or to achieve another objective consistent with that Party’s law.
Article 6.5: Termination
Either Party may terminate this Agreement by providing written notice of termination to the other Party. Termination shall take effect six months after the date of such notification.
Article 6.6: Entry into Force
1. No term of this Agreement shall be operative until entry into force of this Agreement.
2. This Agreement shall enter into force 60 days after the date on which the Parties have notified each other in writing of the completion of their respective applicable internal procedures required for the entry into force of this Agreement.
[1] For greater certainty, “import licensing”, “automatic import licensing”, and “non-automatic import licensing” have the same meanings as provided in the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Import Licensing Procedures.
[2] This paragraph does not apply to Jordan’s requirements regarding voltage or compliance with domestic requirements implementing Sharia law.
[3] For purposes of this Agreement, “intellectual property” refers to all categories of intellectual property that are the subject of Sections 1 through 7 of Part II of the WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights.
[4] For purposes of this Agreement, the protection of intellectual property includes matters related to technological protection measures and rights management information.
[5] For purposes of this Agreement, internationally recognized labor rights include those in the ILO Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work and its Follow-Up (1998), as amended in 2022; a prohibition on the worst forms of child labor; and acceptable conditions of work with respect to minimum wages and hours of work.
[6] For greater certainty, this paragraph covers special economic zones, including export processing zones, or sector-specific laws or regulations that have lesser labor protections than the overall economy.
[7] For purposes of this Agreement, digital product means a computer program, text, video, image, sound recording, or other product that is digitally encoded, produced for commercial sale or distribution, and that can be transmitted electronically. For greater certainty, digital product does not include a digitized representation of a financial instrument, including money. This definition should not be understood to reflect a Party’s view that digital products are a good or are a service.
[8] For greater certainty, for purposes of this paragraph a “digital trade agreement” does not include government procurement contracts.
